Which Cannes Movies Have the Finest Oscar Odds?

CANNES, France — Final 12 months on the Cannes Movie Competition, there was one query on everyone’s lips: “What’s the subsequent ‘Parasite’?” You may see why individuals questioned, since that Bong Joon Ho movie had used its Palme d’Or win to jump-start a historic Oscar marketing campaign.

But when final 12 months’s competition had an inheritor to “Parasite,” it proved to be a most unlikely one.

Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s talky drama “Drive My Automotive” didn’t win the Palme d’Or (it settled for a best-screenplay honor) and wasn’t anybody’s thought of the most important contender popping out of Cannes. Nonetheless, after year-end critics’ teams went for it in a serious method, “Drive My Automotive” picked up enormous Oscar nominations for image, directing and tailored screenplay along with one for finest worldwide movie, the class it gained.

In order this 12 months’s Cannes nears its finish with nobody movie standing head and shoulders above the remainder, I feel that somewhat than trying to find the subsequent “Parasite,” it will be wiser to ask: What’s the subsequent “Drive My Automotive”? In different phrases, which film from this 12 months’s Cannes crop may carry on constructing buzz and capitalize on the academy’s rising worldwide person base to snag main Oscar nominations?

I see three notable contenders. Foremost amongst them is “Shut,” which is hotly tipped to choose up a serious award on the fest on Saturday. It’s the second function from the Belgian director Lukas Dhont, and it follows two 13-year-old boys as their intense friendship begins to unravel. Some essential critiques in Selection and IndieWire have been notably combined, calling out one of many movie’s melodramatic plot twists, however Oscar voters have by no means minded melodrama — in reality, they typically crave it, and essentially the most ardent followers of “Shut” contemplate it to be the four-hankie entry of the competition. A24 purchased the movie on the eve of its premiere, so count on a sturdy fall push.

The South Korean director Park Chan-wook deserved Oscar discover for his twisty 2016 masterpiece “The Handmaiden,” and although his new Cannes movie “Determination to Depart” isn’t fairly on that degree, it’s nonetheless a well-directed affair that would see loads of awards consideration. A Hitchcockian romantic thriller, “Determination to Depart” stars Park Hae-il as a detective investigating a murdered man’s widow (Tang Wei) who, in her personal femme fatale method, appears to welcome the stakeout. After the specific intercourse scenes of “The Handmaiden,” it’s stunning how chaste the director’s follow-up is, however that will truly work to the film’s favor with older Oscar voters.

Hirokazu Kore-eda scored the Palme d’Or in 2018 for his delicate drama “Shoplifters,” which went on to compete for the international-film Oscar; although it misplaced to the Netflix-funded juggernaut “Roma,” I think a movie like “Shoplifters” would play higher at this time and contend for extra nominations throughout completely different classes. Control Kore-eda’s “Dealer,” then: This affectionate character research stars “Parasite” lead Tune Kang Ho as certainly one of two good-natured criminals who attempt to promote an deserted child. At occasions, the film is so candy that it verges on gooey, however I doubt the “CODA” wing of the academy will complain.

Another Cannes entries may pop up all through awards season, together with “Armageddon Time,” from the director James Grey, a couple of middle-class Jewish household whose progressive attitudes masks a willingness to climb a number of rungs on the expense of these much less privileged. Grey is well-liked in France and will choose up a trophy right here, however Oscar voters have but to interrupt for him in any vital method. Stars Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Robust, and Anthony Hopkins will a minimum of entice consideration.

Vicky Krieps ought to have already got one Oscar nomination below her belt for “Phantom Thread”: since she was snubbed then, maybe voters may make it as much as her for “Corsage,” wherein she’s enjoyable and spiky because the Empress Elisabeth of Austria. I’d even be happy if critics’ teams rally behind Léa Seydoux as a single mom trying a difficult romance in Mia Hansen-Love’s “One Superb Morning,” my favourite entry of the competition.

Seydoux can be fairly good in David Cronenberg’s “Crimes of the Future,” the place she stars reverse Viggo Mortensen and Kristen Stewart, however the movie could show too out-there for awards voters; ditto “Triangle of Unhappiness,” from “The Sq.” director Ruben Ostlund, although that class comedy does present among the most gonzo gross-out sequences of the 12 months and incorporates a memorable supporting flip from Woody Harrelson.

What concerning the costly Hollywood films that premiered at Cannes? “Elvis” hails from the director Baz Luhrmann, who managed an Oscar breakthrough with “Moulin Rouge” however whose final movie, “The Nice Gatsby,” earned nominations just for its costumes and manufacturing design. The glittery “Elvis” appears prone to proceed that pattern: Evaluations have been polarizing, and although up-and-comer Austin Butler impresses as Elvis Presley, younger hunks often face an uphill battle within the lead-actor class. (And the much less stated concerning the misbegotten supporting efficiency from Tom Hanks as Elvis’s supervisor, the higher.)

The final time George Miller was at Cannes, he premiered “Mad Max: Fury Street,” which went on to earn 10 Oscar nominations (together with image and director) and in the end picked up six statuettes. Motion films hardly ever fare that properly with Oscar, however Miller broke the mould, and he’s made one thing else distinctive with “Three Thousand Years of Longing,” his new movie a couple of djinn (Idris Elba), a scholar (Tilda Swinton) and the distinctive love that blooms between them. It’s bought drama, fantasy, romance, comedy … and also you’ll both thrill to all of that, or discover it a bit overstuffed. The tech parts of the movie deserve discover, however different classes may very well be a protracted shot.

After which there’s “Prime Gun: Maverick,” which launched on the Croisette with a flyby from fighter jets and an opaque dialog with star Tom Cruise. This long-in-the-making sequel is incomes stellar critiques and it’s expertly directed. If the academy actually desires to push well-done blockbuster materials into the most effective image race, this may very well be the summer time’s strongest hope. “Drive My Fighter Jet,” anybody?

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